In order to explore the influence of structural factors on the fragility of red pottery products and accurately discriminate the fragility of red pottery products, a method of estimating the fragility of red pottery products by dividing them into pottery sherd units is proposed. Taking red pottery sherds as the research object, the effects of mass, width-thickness ratio, curvature and their interaction on fragility were explored by single factor experiments and L27(313) orthogonal interaction experiments, and the fragility of different pottery sherds were obtained by Ansys simulation and test. The results of single factor experiments showed that the mass was negatively correlated with the fragility, and the width-thickness ratio was positively correlated with the fragility. With the increase of curvature, the fragility increased first and then decreased, with a maximum value at 24 m-1. According to the orthogonal interaction experiment, the degree of influence of each factor and its interaction on the fragility was from large to small as follows: mass, width-thickness ratio, curvature, mass×curvature, mass×width-thickness ratio, width-thickness ratio×curvature. The influence of single factor on pottery sherds was more significant, so the influence of single factor should be given priority when determining the fragility of pottery products. Comparing the test results of eight groups of specimens with the simulation results, the maximum error between them was 5.1%, which proved the reliability of the Ansys simulation.