安徽省能源消费变化特征及能源需求预测研究——基于Grey-Markov模型
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F206

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安徽省哲学社会科学规划基金资助项目(AHSKY2021D138)


Study on Energy Consumption Change Characteristics and Energy Demand Forecasts in Anhui Province:Based on Grey-Markov Model
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    摘要:

    为梳理安徽省能源需求特征,科学预测安徽省未来能源需求量,为安徽省制定“十五五”能源规划提供依据,采用灰色马尔可夫优化组合模型,对安徽省未来能源消费量进行预测。研究结果表明:安徽省能源消费具有逐年上升、能源结构“一煤独大”、人均能源消费需求潜力大、能源消费强度低、能源消费弹性系数大等特征;预计2025年和2030年,安徽省能源消费量将分别达到17 785.38万t和21 723.79万t标准煤;构建的安徽省能源需求预测组合模型精度较高(预测误差为0.17%)。为构建“清洁低碳,安全高效”的安徽省能源体系,建议安徽省政府管理者通过倡导节能、提高能源利用率、大力发展可再生能源、加大科技创新与地区能源合作等对策应对不断上涨的能源需求。

    Abstract:

    In view of a detailed analysis of the energy demand characteristics of Anhui Province, as well as a scientific forecast of its future energy consumption, thus providing a basis for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for energy development in Anhui, a grey Markov optimized combination model has thus been adopted for the future energy consumption prediction of Anhui Province. The research results indicate that: The energy consumption in Anhui Province is characterized with a yearly increase, a "coal-dominated" energy structure, a high potential per capita energy consumption demand, a low energy consumption intensity, and a high energy consumption elasticity coefficient; It is expected that by 2025 and 2030, the energy consumption in Anhui Province will reach 177.853 8 million tons of standard coal and 217.237 9 million tons of standard coal, respectively; There is a high accuracy in the constructed Anhui Province energy demand forecast combination model (with a prediction error of 0.17%). To construct a "clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient" energy system in Anhui Province, it is recommended that governmental administrators of Anhui Province respond to the constantly rising energy demand by advocating energy conservation, improving energy utilization efficiency, vigorously developing renewable energy, intensifying technological innovation and strengthening regional energy cooperation, etc.

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姜 佩,董洪光,费 翔.安徽省能源消费变化特征及能源需求预测研究——基于Grey-Markov模型[J].湖南工业大学学报,2026,40(2):81-88.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-05
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