Abstract:Under the dual constraints of the task allocation of the totality and intensity of carbon emissions, an effective measurement of the totality and intensity of carbon emissions in provinces and cities, along with the decomposition of driving factors, helps to achieve the regional and national goal of“carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality”. Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2018, the surface energy consumption estimation method is used for the measurement of the total carbon emissions and intensity of provinces and cities (cities and districts), followed by an analysis of the temporal and spatial dynamic evolution trend of total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity, with the driving factors of China’s carbon emission growth totality decomposed based on LMDI model. The research results show that China’s total carbon emissions in 2018 were 12 570 019 500 tons, witha carbon intensity of 1.05 tons per thousand US dollars. From 2000 to 2018, Shandong, Hebei and Shanxi were three provinces ranking the top three in average carbon emissions, while Beijing, Hainan and Qinghai ranked the bottom three. The top three regions in the average carbon emission intensity are Shanxi, Guizhou and Ningxia, while the bottom three were Guangdong, Hainan and Fujian. Technological and structural effects are the most important factors for carbon emission reduction in China, while economic growth and population growth will lead to an increase in the totality of carbon emissions.