基于DBN-Kalman-EC算法的 短期风电功率组合预测
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Short-Term Wind Power Combination Forecasting Based on DBN-Kalman-EC Algorithm
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    摘要:

    提出一种基于深度置信网络(DBN)和卡尔曼算法(Kalman),结合误差修正算法(EC)的短期风电功率组合预测模型。运用经验模态算法(EMD)将原始风速序列分解,提取其主要特征,降低风速序列突变性;然后利用DBN法,通过构造两种不同的输入输出矩阵,得到pro_1和pro_2两种预测功率、bias_1和bias_2两种预测误差;接着将pro_1作为测量值、bias_1作为测量误差,将pro_2作为观测值、bias_2作为过程误差引入Kalman模型,得到预测结果pro和预测误差bias;最后利用EC算法对pro和bias进行修正。仿真结果表明,DBN-Kalman-EC模型能有效中和bias_1和bias_2两种误差,降低了预测误差,修正预测值,有效地提高了短期风电功率预测的精度。

    Abstract:

    A short-term wind power combination forecasting model has been proposed based on deep belief network (DBN) and Kalman algorithm combined with the error correction algorithm (EC). Firstly, the empirical modal algorithm (EMD) is to be used to decompose the original wind speed sequence, thus extracting its main features and reducing the mutation of the wind speed sequence. Then, by adopting DBN method, two kinds of input and output matrices can be constructed so as to obtain the predicted powers of pro_1 and pro_2, thus obtaining the two kinds of prediction errors. Next, with pro_1 as the measurement value, and bias_1 as the measurement error, the introduction into Kalman model of pro_2 as the observation value and bias_2 as the process error helps to obtain the prediction result pro and prediction error bias, followed by a modification of pro and bias based on EC algorithm. The simulation results show that DBN-kalman-EC combined prediction model can effectively neutralize bias_1 and bias_2 errors, reduce prediction errors, correct predicted values, and effectively improve the accuracy of the short-term wind power prediction.

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曹庆兰,匡洪海,王建辉,荣浩博.基于DBN-Kalman-EC算法的 短期风电功率组合预测[J].湖南工业大学学报,2019,33(5):19-24.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-10-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-11-05
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