中国物流产业与养老产业耦合协调发展时空演变与影响因素
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F259.2;F719

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国家社科基金资助项目“中西部农村积极老龄化水平评估与支持体系研究”(23BGL259)


Study on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Coupling and Coordinated Development Between Logistics Industry and Elderly Care Industry in China
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    摘要:

    采用熵值法和耦合协调度模型,对2013—2022年全国31个省市的物流产业与养老产业综合发展水平及其耦合协调度进行量化分析,并运用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)和地理探测器模型,探讨两产业耦合协调的时空演变特征及其影响因素。研究发现,两个产业的综合发展指数均呈现上升趋势,物流产业在研究期间的发展相对滞后;两个产业的耦合协调关系稳定向好,空间分布呈现东高西低、南高北低的特征,其中“高-高”集聚型主要分布在华东与华中地区,“低-低”集聚型主要集中在西北地区;人力资本和经济发展水平是影响耦合协调度的两个主要因素,且存在双因子增强的交互作用。据此,建议在“低-低”集聚型地区,重点加强基础设施建设和产业扶持,建立针对老年人的配送体系,在“高-高”集聚型地区,则聚焦于产业结构优化和创新能力提升,发展智慧物流和科技养老;同时,关注区域均衡发展,增强人力资本,提高经济发展水平,以推动区域间均衡、协调发展。

    Abstract:

    By applying the entropy method and the coupling coordination degree model, this study quantitatively analyzed the comprehensive development levels and coupling coordination degree of the logistics and elderly care industries in 31 provinces and municipalities across China from 2013 to 2022. Additionally, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and a geographical detector model were employed to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling coordination between the two industries. The findings reveal that the comprehensive development indices of both industries exhibit an upward trend, though the logistics industry lags relatively behind during the study period. The coupling coordination relationship between the two industries remains stable and improving, with a spatial distribution characterized by higher levels in the east than in the west and higher levels in the south than in the north. Specifically, “high-high” agglomeration types are primarily concentrated in East and Central China, while “low-low” agglomeration types are mainly found in Northwest China. Human capital and economic development level are the two dominant factors influencing the coupling coordination degree, exhibiting a bivariate enhancement interaction effect. Finally, based on these findings, it is recommended that in “low-low” agglomeration regions, efforts should focus on strengthening infrastructure construction and industrial support, as well as establishing elderly-oriented delivery systems whereas in “high-high” agglomeration regions, emphasis should be placed on industrial structure optimization and innovation capacity enhancement, promoting smart logistics and technology-driven elderly care. Additionally, attention should be given to regional balanced development, human capital improvement, and economic growth to foster interregional equilibrium and coordinated growth.

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朱文娟,张雨欣.中国物流产业与养老产业耦合协调发展时空演变与影响因素[J].《湖南工业大学学报(社会科学版)》,2025,30(4):49-57.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-25
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