区域经济、农业与物流业耦合协调发展时空演化研究 ——以长江经济带为例
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国家社会科学基金项目“新型城镇化背景下小城镇电子商务物流发展研究”(15BJY117);教育部人文社会科学基金项目“新时代下物流业与新型城镇化协调发展效率研究——以长三角为例”(20YJA790043);安徽省研究生教育质量工程基金项目“乡村振兴战略下新型城镇化与农村物流协调发展效率研究——以长三角为例”(2022cxscx026);安徽高校人文社会科学研究重点项目“新型城镇化发展对安徽省物流产业效率影响及路径分析”(SK2019A0034);安徽省高校基金资助项目“新时代城镇化建设下安徽省物流高质量发展路径研究”(YJS20210072);中国物流学会课题“‘物流强国’战略下城镇化与物流高质量发展研究”(2022CLSKT3-094)


Study on the Spatial-Temporal Evolution of the Coupled and Coordinated Development of Regional Economy, Agriculture and Logistics: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt
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    摘要:

    运用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关模型和灰色预测模型,对2011—2020年长江经济带11个省市的区域经济、农业与物流业的综合发展水平、耦合协调度、空间相关性进行了分析,并对三系统2021—2030年的耦合协调发展水平进行了预测。结果表明,长江经济带区域经济、农业、物流业三个子系统综合指数和总体综合指数大致呈增长趋势;三系统耦合协调度逐年上升,上游、中游、下游地区的耦合协调水平依次增高;三系统耦合协调度在空间上呈现出正向关系,空间聚集性逐渐增强;2021—2030年,预测长江经济带耦合协调水平将不断增大,发展速度也将逐年递增,预计到2030年达到良好协调状态。据此,建议政府加大对农业与物流业的投入,分区域制定相关政策,各区域加强合作力度,培养专业化人才,以共同促进长江经济带的高效协调发展。

    Abstract:

    The coupling coordination degree model, spatial autocorrelation model and gray prediction model were used to analyze the comprehensive development level, coupling coordination degree and spatial correlation of regional economy, agriculture and logistics industry in 11 provinces and cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020, and the coupling coordination development level of the three systems from 2021 to 2030 was predicted. The results show that the comprehensive index and the overall comprehensive index of the three subsystems of regional economy, agriculture and logistics industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt have shown an increasing trend. The coupling coordination degree of the three systems has increased year by year, with a successively increasing coupling coordination level in the upstream, middle and downstream regions. The coupling coordination degree of the three systems presents a positive spatial relationship, and the spatial aggregation is gradually enhanced. Form 2021 to 2030, the coupling and coordination level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt will continue to increase, and the development speed will also increase year by year, and it is expected to reach a good coordination state by 2030. Therefore, it is suggested that the government increase investment in agriculture and logistics industry, and formulate relevant policies in different regions, and that regions strengthen cooperation and train professional talents, so as to jointly promote the efficient and coordinated development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

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梁 雯,殷伟伟.区域经济、农业与物流业耦合协调发展时空演化研究 ——以长江经济带为例[J].《湖南工业大学学报(社会科学版)》,2024,29(1):40-47.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-01-29
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