我国人口流动对房地产经济的影响研究
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教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目“空间外部性和低碳视角下流域生态效率的提升机制研究”(17YJC790134)


On the Influence of Population Flow on Real Estate Economy in China
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    摘要:

    利用我国33个大中小城市2005—2018年的面板数据,从房地产投资、房地产消费、房地产开发企业规模3个方面选取11个指标,采用熵值法计算得到房地产经济综合指标,并构建静态与动态面板模型,探究人口流动对房地产经济的影响机制。实证结果表明:静态面板模型与动态面板模型回归结果均显示,全国层面人口流动对房地产经济发展具有显著的正向影响;静态面板回归结果显示,人口流入较快地区的房地产经济水平提高显著,而人口流入缓慢地区的房地产经济水平提高则不明显;动态面板回归结果显示,全国以及各地区房地产经济增长均存在“惯性”,且人口流入较快地区的房地产经济发展的“惯性”要大于人口流入缓慢地区。据此,政府应重视流动人口的区域协调性,引导人口流动合理分布;房地产企业则需结合人口流动趋势,调整房地产投资战略布局。

    Abstract:

    Based on the panel data of 33 large, medium and small cities in China from 2005 to 2018, 11 indicators are selected from three aspects of real estate investment, real estate consumption and real estate development enterprise scale. The entropy method is used to calculate the comprehensive index of real estate economy, and the static and dynamic panel models are constructed to explore the influence mechanism of population flow on real estate economy. The empirical results are as follows:The regression results of static panel model and dynamic panel model show that the population flow at the national level has a significant positive impact on the development of real estate economy; the results of static panel regression show that the real estate economic level in areas with rapid population inflows has significantly improved, while the improvement of the real estate economic level in areas with slow population inflows is not obvious; the results of dynamic panel regression show that there is“inertia” in real estate economic growth all over the country and all regions and the real estate economic development in regions with rapid population inflows is faster than that in regions with slow population inflows. Accordingly, the government should pay attention to the regional coordination of the floating population and guide the reasonable distribution of population flow, and at the same time, real estate enterprises need to adjust the strategic layout of real estate investment according to the flow trend of floating population.

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彭志胜,刘妃平,张 帅.我国人口流动对房地产经济的影响研究[J].《湖南工业大学学报(社会科学版)》,2022,27(2):1-7.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-10-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-05-12
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