中国服务业能源消费与碳排放的关联分析
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国家“十二五”科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2011BAJ07B03-06);湖南省教育厅一般科研基金资助项目(12C0082)


Relevance Analysis of Energy Consumption
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    摘要:

    在分析1991—2011年间中国服务业能耗与碳排放的结构特征和总体趋势的基础上,运用OECD脱钩指标法和Tapio脱钩指标法,阐述了服务业GDP、能耗与碳排放之间的互动关系和关联效应。结果表明:服务业GDP、能耗和碳排放量整体上呈逐年增长之势;能耗强度与碳排放强度的变化具有很强的一致性和同步性,都呈下降之势;煤炭类消费的比重大致呈递减之势,而天然气、热力和电力消费的数量和比重却呈逐年增长趋势;煤炭、石油等传统高碳能源比重均占80%以上;历年OECD脱钩因子均呈现出绝对脱钩的状态,并表现为波动式上升之势;历年Tapio脱钩弹性指数整体上也均呈波动式上升之势。基于以上结论,提出了服务业节能减碳的政策建议。

    Abstract:

    On the basis of structural characteristics and general tendency analysis on energy consumption and carbon emission about Chinese service industry during 1991—2011,the methods of OECD and Tapio decoupling indicator were applied,the interactive relations and associated effects were described among GDP,energy consumption and carbon emission in service industry. Results indicates as follows:as a whole,GDP,energy consumption and carbon emission were yearly growth of potential; The change of energy intensity and carbon intensity about service industry had strong consistency and synchronization,and they were declined of potential;The consumption proportion of coal was roughly decreasing of potential,but the consumption proportion and total amount of natural gas,thermal and power were yearly growth trend;traditional high carbon energy proportions, such as coal and oil were accounted for 80% above;OECD decoupling factor were rendering out absolute decoupling state,and performed for fluctuations type rose of potential every year; Tapio decoupling elasticity indicators showed volatility on the overall rising trend. Based on the above conclusions,some policy recommendations of energy saving and carbon reduction about service industry were put forward.

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张旺,谢世雄.中国服务业能源消费与碳排放的关联分析[J].《湖南工业大学学报(社会科学版)》,2014,19(4):1-9.

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  • 收稿日期:2014-04-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-07-10
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