Based on the SIR/IR infectious disease model, and according to the public data of the new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in Hubei Province from January to May 2020, a modeling empirical research has been carried out on the changes and prevention and control of the epidemic situation in Hubei. First, the SIR model is used to fit the data to obtain the epidemic change curve; then, the linear least square method is used to derive the basic infection coefficient R0 of COVID-19, and this coefficient is used to specify the degree of epidemic prevention; finally, the IR model is used to analyze and adopt The impact of different intensities of control and prevention and isolation measures on the epidemic. The evolution results show that strict control will greatly reduce the infection of the epidemic and shorten the time for the end of the epidemic.