基于实时电价特征的Seq2Seq-Attention 网络短期电价预测
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国家重点研发计划基金资助项目(2018YFB1700200),国家自然科学基金资助青年项目(61702177)


Short-Term Electricity Price Forecast in Seq2Seq-Attention Network Based on Real-Time Electricity Price Features
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    摘要:

    电价预测中常选择负荷与电价作为输入特征,由于输入信息量少,难以得到较好的预测效果。为准确捕捉短期电价变化规律,提出基于实时电价原理进行电价特征提取,从电价形成机制的角度对电价波动原因进行分析,筛选出用于短期电价预测的实时电价特征。并使用擅于捕捉电价预测数据规律的Seq2Seq-Attention网络进行预测。通过美国PJM电力市场公开数据进行验证,证明了该方法的有效性。

    Abstract:

    Due to the small amount of input information available with load and price selected as input features in electricity price forecasting, it is difficult to achieve a better forecasting effect. In order to accurately capture the change frequency of short-term electricity price, it is proposed to extract the characteristics of electricity price based on the principle of real-time electricity price, followed by an analysis of the causes of electricity price fluctuation from the perspective of electricity price formation mechanism, with the characteristics of real-time electricity price selected for short-term electricity price prediction. Moreover, a recommendation has been made of Seq2Seq-attention network, which is good at capturing the law of electricity price forecast data to forecast. The validity of this proposed method has been verified by the public data of PJM power market in the United States.

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厉宇程,李长云.基于实时电价特征的Seq2Seq-Attention 网络短期电价预测[J].湖南工业大学学报,2020,34(4):29-34.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-08-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-07-10
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