基于VaR和ES模型的中国公司债券 下行风险度量研究
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Research on Downside Risk Measurement of Chinese Corporate Bonds Based on VaR and ES Model
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    摘要:

    针对中国公司债券具有行业、 期限、类型等差异性,收益率和交易量数据突发性和不连续性、不确定性等特点,研究公司债券下行风险计算方法,并分析其与收益的关系。通过对中国公司债券特点的研究分析,确定债券筛选和数据处理原则,应用历史模拟法建立条件风险价值VaR和ES模型,采用失败频率法检验和比较模型的有效性,根据分段组合投资的下行风险分析风险与收益的关系。研究结果表明,VaR与ES模型在不同置信水平下,总体符合有效度量下行风险的要求,ES模型失败比例相对较低;中国公司债券按ES分段投资组合结果表明,每组平均收益与ES正相关。

    Abstract:

    In view of such characteristics of Chinese corporate bonds as variance in industries’terms’types, unexpected fluctuation in rate of return and trading volume with its discontinuity and uncertainty, etc., an inquiry has been made into the method for calculating the downside risk of corporate bonds, followed by an analysis of the relationship between the risk and the returns. Based on the research and analysis of the characteristics of Chinese corporate bonds, the principles of bond screening and data processing can be determined, with the conditional VaR and ES models to be established by using the historical simulation method, the effectiveness of the models to be tested and compared by using the failure frequency method, and the relationship between risk and return to be analyzed according to the downside risk of the segmented portfolio investment. The Research results show that the VaR and ES models meet the requirements for an effective measurement of the downside risk under different confidence levels, with the ES model failure ratio being relatively low. Meanwhile, the results of the Chinese corporate bond segmentation portfolio show that the average return of each group is positively correlated with ES.

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龙雨晴.基于VaR和ES模型的中国公司债券 下行风险度量研究[J].湖南工业大学学报,2020,34(3):88-93.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-05-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-05-26
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