公路基础设施建设发展特征及灰色趋势预测研究
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(51348010),湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(14JJ3109)


Study on the Development Features and Grey Relation Trend Forecast of Highway Infrastructure Construction
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    摘要:

    针对公路基础设施建设发展预测基本空白的现状,在对我国公路基础设施建设的历史发展进行梳理的基础上,分析了我国公路基础设施建设的历史发展特征并初步探索其原因。采用灰色预测方法,建立灰色预测模型并编制灰色预测程序,在通过关联度检验、后验差检验、残差检验的基础上,对我国公路基础设施建设未来的发展趋势进行预测。研究和预测的结果表明,所建立的灰色预测模型精度较高,所编制的灰色预测程序效果良好,我国的公路基础设施建设发展潜力巨大,结构调整仍有较大空间,预测结果可作为公路交通管理部门制定发展规划和做出决策的重要依据和参考。

    Abstract:

    In view of the fact that the current highway infrastructure development forecast is basically a virgin ground, based on the gathered information of the historical development of the highway infrastructure construction in China, a detailed analysis has been made of its developmental features and a tentative analysis of its causes as well. A grey prediction model has been established and a grey prediction program has been worked out, followed by a future development trend prediction of the highway infrastructure construction in China, based on the correlation test, the posterior variance test and the residual test. The research and forecast results show that the proposed grey forecasting model is of high precision, and the formulated grey prediction program has achieved a good effect, with a great potential for the future development of the highway infrastructure construction and the structural readjustment. The prediction results can be referred to by the highway traffic management department for the development planning and decision making.

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郑玉国,夏鸿翔,贺 浩.公路基础设施建设发展特征及灰色趋势预测研究[J].湖南工业大学学报,2016,30(5):70-76.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-07-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-01-08
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