Enterprise long term quality cost change exists learning effects. Through the study of domestic and foreign quality cost theories and the existing quality cost model, breaks through the modeling thinking based on quality cost elements, builds the quality cost forecasting model based on learning curve effect, and verifies the model by a chemical enterprise for continuous data 48 months. The model not only avoids the shortage of some models which can not be used because of the parameters difficult to acquire, but also considers the quality cost nature, and provides an operational quality cost forecasting tool for enterprises, so as to provide reference for setting the quality cost target and controlling the quality cost.